Former SCEE president Chris Deering spoke at the Edinburgh Interactive Festival this morning, predicting that Sony and Nintendo will reach a tie in terms of hardware numbers in 2011. The chairman of the Festival examined data from both Screen Digest and the International Data Group. Other elements he took into consideration included hi-def growth, older gamers, new game engines and the increasing availability of wi-fi access.
Deering believes that "active installed base for hardware" will go from 316 million currently to over 500 million in the next three years. Heading the pack will be Sony and Microsoft, having both sold 230 million units. Sony will have sold 70 million PS3s, 90 million PS2s and 70 million PSPs. Nintendo will have sold 150 million units of the DS and 80 million units of the Wii. Microsoft will also experience "decent growth," totaling up to 40 million units of the Xbox 360 or any of its future incarnations by 2011.
What do you guys think? The numbers don't seem far-fetched to us, but why include PS2 numbers in a current-gen hardware tally?
[Thanks to everyone who sent this in!]
[Correction: Microsoft will have a total install base of 40 million, not 80 million.]
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